UK’s robust economic growth to moderate in 2008 - NIESRComments (0)
LONDON (AFX) - The UK’s economic growth will remain robust this year but begin to ease going into next year, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research said today.
As part of a bi-annual report for the European Commission on the UK and euro area economies, the NIESR said it expects UK GDP to grow by 2.75 pct this year and 2.50 pct in 2008. Inflation should moderate from 2.8 pct currently to hover just above the Bank of England’s 2.0 pct target over the next couple of years.
The 2007 Budget presented last week by Chancellor Gordon Brown should see government spending as a share of GDP falling from 39.1 pct in 2007/08 to 38.5 pct in 2010/11, the NIESR said. This will allow the general government deficit to remain below 3.0 pct of GDP.
The forecasts for the euro area see GDP growing by 2.5 pct this year and 2.2 pct in 2008. Inflation is expected to average 1.8 pct in 2007 but accelerate to 2.0 pct next year on the back of higher wage settlements.
The key driver of the euro area, the labour market, is expected to continue to improve, with the unemployment rate averaging 7.2 pct this year and 6.8 pct next year.
The NIESR added that while further weakness in the US housing market does constitute a risk to growth in the euro zone and UK, it would have a much smaller impact than an internationally-based adjustment, such as a dollar depreciation caused by an adjustment in the current account deficit.
carlo.piovano@thomson.com
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