February 28, 2007

Oil Prices Rise As Demand Worries FadeComments (0)

Filed under: business — admin @ 9:44 pm

(02-28) 12:51 PST NEW YORK, (AP) —

Oil prices rebounded to another two-month high Wednesday, as traders brushed off Tuesday’s stock market plunge and refocused on declining product inventories.

Iran’s persistent refusal to suspend its nuclear program has also been a driving force behind the energy market’s six-day advance.

The U.S. government reported Wednesday that stockpiles of gasoline and distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, dropped last week by a larger amount than analysts had forecast. Gasoline and distillate inventories are lower than they were at this time last year.

Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose 33 cents to settle at $61.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude initially fell as low as $59.92 in electronic trading on the worry that U.S. and Chinese fuel demand growth could slow. As that concern faded, crude rallied to end higher for the sixth straight session at its loftiest settlement price since Dec. 22, when crude finished at $62.41 a barrel.

March heating oil futures rose less than a cent to settle at $1.7804 a gallon on the Nymex, and March gasoline rose 3.15 cents to settle at $1.8476. The March products contracts expired Wednesday after the market closed.

U.S. crude inventories climbed 1.4 million barrels to 329.0 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said Wednesday in its weekly report. But gasoline inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels to 220.2 million barrels, and distillate inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels to 124.5 million barrels. Both drops were a bit larger than most analysts were expecting.

“The stock market plunge yesterday was a driver to the downside, but countering that has been the strength of the gasoline market … That additional draw was somewhat supportive to the market,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Ill.

He said he expects oil over the next two weeks to rise toward $65 a barrel.

Traders were also focused overseas, as tensions heighten between Western countries and Iran following the nation’s failure last week to meet the IAEA deadline to halt its nuclear program. Iran’s foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, reiterated Tuesday that his country would never again suspend uranium enrichment, a move the United States insists on for any negotiations with Tehran.

“Any unforeseen geopolitical development could inflame the markets and push them much higher,” said Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit.

The U.S. stock market tumbled by the largest amount in years Tuesday on worries about an abrupt economic slowdown. The fall was triggered partially by a 9 percent drop in Chinese shares amid speculation that Beijing may take further steps to slow China’s rapid growth. To the energy markets, the stock market declines raised a red flag about oil demand.

However, many analysts noted that there’s been no indication that fuel demand out of China is deflating. The country is the world’s second-largest oil consumer, and accounts for more than a third of oil demand growth.

“The reaction to the fall in the Chinese stock market is really a short-term overreaction,” said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. “The Chinese economy will remain a major growth engine in the global economy.”

On Wednesday, stocks in China bounced back nearly 4 percent. U.S. stock markets were also up in late afternoon trading.

In other Nymex trading, natural gas futures fell 23.3 cents to settle at $7.300 per 1,000 cubic feet. The EIA releases its weekly report on U.S. natural gas storage on Thursday.

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Associated Press writer Derrick Ho in Singapore contributed to this report.

Bernanke Calms Jittery MarketsComments (0)

Filed under: investment — admin @ 9:44 pm

Gold futures were dropping Wednesday amid a mass liquidation following the previous day’s stock market meltdown.

Contracts for April delivery of bullion were off $15.60 at $671.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

However, the exchange-traded funds that hold the metal, iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU) and streetTracks Gold Shares (GLD) , were up 0.4% and 1%, respectively.

The difference in direction between the futures and the ETFs reflects market action that occurred after the close of the Comex floor session at 1:30 p.m. EST Tuesday, but before trading ended at 4 p.m. EST on the New York Stock Exchange.

With about an hour left in the prior session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 500 points on anxiety over China’s economy. The move sparked follow-on futures sales on the Comex’s electronic platform and sent gold as low as $664 before it recovered somewhat. The Dow also erased some of its losses before the close.

“When equity markets collapse, even temporarily, there is a rush to cash, for liquidity purposes,” says Jeff Christian, managing director at New York-based specialty consulting firm CPM Group. “Investors need to cover margins, so they tend to try to sell everything.”

Peter Spina, a technical strategist at GoldSeek.com, says the stock market drop was a “rude awakening” for “complacent” investors, and he fully expects to see a rebound for gold if the equity meltdown spreads. Gold is often purchased as a safe-haven investment.

On the economic data front, the Commerce Department made a downward revision to its estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a minor upward adjustment to an inflation measure. Other news showed a weaker Midwestern manufacturing sector and more evidence of softness in housing.

Foreign exchange dealers didn’t seem to mind the lackluster economic news and bid up the greenback. One dollar was recently buying 118.53 yen, up from 117.98 yen late Tuesday. The euro was fetching $1.3208, down from $1.3236 previously.

“The U.S. may have its problems, but relative to the rest of world it’s in much better shape than they are,” says Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at New Jersey-based specialty economics firm, Channel Capital Research. “That leads the dollar to go up.”

In the precious-metals patch, the Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) ETF, which tracks a basket of mining stocks, was ahead by 0.9%.

As for base metals, copper contracts were off 9 cents at $2.74 a pound on the Comex, marginally higher than the lows. The poor housing news and expected softness in China’s economy, both of which have been keeping copper prices at historic highs, will likely dampen sentiment among the bulls.

Shares of Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold were up 1.9%, rebounding from a big dip Tuesday.

My New SystemComments (0)

Filed under: fx — admin @ 9:44 pm

I made my first trade today using a very simple system and profited 30 pips. This simple system really is a product of becoming very familiar with the intraday movement of the GBP/USD.

This morning with no economic releases, the GBP pushed downward below Friday’s low, 1.9457 but couldn’t push any lower than 1.9438. This failure to follow through usually indicates a possible trading opportunity. Timing is very important though. The push downward first occured at 5:15 am EST. I would never take a reverse here. In fact, I wouldn’t take a reverse until after a good portion of the US session is complete. My thinking is that if in this case there just aren’t enough sellers to push the pair lower. The intraday sellers in recognizing this fact will close their positions either taking profit or a small loss. I don’t like to trade greedy and in my experience, taking 30 pips from the GBP/USD is optimal. In my trade today, this proved correct, I got in at 1.9463, out at 1.9493, and the pair hit a high of 1.9495. Below is a chart of the movement this morning. In an attempt to possibly spur some discussion, I’ll post a video later.

This is just one way that I look for trading opportunities. I’m not looking at any of the traditional indicators, just the previous session low and the candlesticks for the current session. I’d say that I’m pretty close to trading naked (no lagging indicators.) I’m also of the school of keeping it as simple as possible.

Innerworth Ceases PublicationComments (0)

Filed under: fx — admin @ 9:43 pm

I’m disappointed that Innerworth, the “Mind Over Markets” website that released daily newsletters related to trading and psychology, has ceased operating. It was very sudden. They sent out an email announcement on the same day they were shutting the doors:

We regret to inform you that the Innerworth Mind Over Markets™ daily newsletter will officially cease publication on Friday, February 9, 2007. Additionally, http://www.innerworth.com/ will cease operations on Friday. We appreciate your support and patronage over the years.

There are just so few reliable and credible forex resources out there. When you lose one, it seems like you’re losing a lot more. I didn’t always read the newsletter but when I did, I found it very well written, informative, and helpful.

Sprint Nextel’s 4Q Revenue, Profit RiseComments (0)

Filed under: business — admin @ 9:43 pm

(02-28) 11:32 PST Kansas City, Mo. (AP) —

Sprint Nextel Corp., the nation’s third largest wireless carrier, said Wednesday that fourth-quarter profits rose 33 percent on stronger revenue, but the company continued to lose high-quality subscribers.

The company, based in Reston, Va., with operational headquarters in Overland Park, Kan., reported earning $261 million, or 9 cents per share, during the October-December period, compared with $195 million, or 7 cents per share, a year earlier.

The fourth quarter earnings were one penny better than that expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

Revenue for the quarter rose 6 percent to $10.44 billion from $9.79 billion, surpassing analysts’ prediction of $10.39 billion.

Sprint Nextel shares, which have traded in a 52-week range of $15.92 to $26.89, were up $1.30 at $19.75 in afternoon trading Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange.

The company’s customer base grew by 1.3 million customers during the quarter, to end the year at 53.1 million. But that number reflected gains in less-valuable “pay-as-you-go” customers, whereas monthly subscribers, who tend to generate more revenue, fell by 306,000. And once again, most of the lost “post-paid” customers came from the Nextel side, which has been struggling with network quality issues. Nextel’s subscribers are especially valuable because many of them are business users with higher monthly bills.

Chief Executive Gary Forsee told analysts in a conference call that the company has invested heavily in the Nextel network to avoid dropped calls and poor signal quality. He also said the company plans next year to introduce Q-Chat, an application that places calls across both networks. The company already has begun rolling out hybrid Nextel phones that can connect with the data portion of the Sprint network.

Sprint Nextel also is attempting to weed out low-quality customers through tougher credit requirements. Chief Financial Officer Paul Saleh said that would continue to hamstring growth in the first quarter, but that he expected post-paid customer numbers to begin rising in the second quarter.

The company first warned of disappointing subscriber numbers in January, adding that it planned to cut 5,000 jobs. Forsee said he expects most of those job cuts to be completed by April 1, saving the company $400 million annually.

The company acquired 830,000 new subscribers from wholesale channels. Boost Mobile, the company’s youth-oriented pre-paid service, saw a gain of 171,000 customers.

Post-paid churn, or the measure of subscribers dropping their service, improved slightly to 2.3 percent per month of the subscriber base. That was down from 2.4 percent in the third quarter, but still above the 2.1 percent churn reported in the year-ago period.

The company said most of those dropping service were in markets served by former affiliate Nextel Partners, which the company bought last year.

Average revenue per post-paid user declined during the quarter to $60, 1 percent below the third quarter and about 5 percent lower in the final quarter of 2005.

The company’s long-distance phone business continued to shrink, with revenues dipping 2 percent to $1.64 billion. But the company said it was now serving 1.5 million customers through its partnership with four cable companies, an 80 percent gain over the end of 2005.

For all of 2006, profit slumped to $1.33 billion, or 45 cents per share, from $1.78 billion, or 87 cents per share, in 2005. Revenue rose 43 percent to $41.03 billion. The 2005 results only include revenue from Nextel Corp. starting in August, when the merger was completed.

The company reiterated the 2007 guidance it issued on Jan. 8, saying it expected annual revenue between $41 billion and $42 billion.

Analysts predict 2007 earnings of 82 cents per share on $41.14 billion in revenue.

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On the Net:

http://www.sprint.com

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